NEW YORK - Allied Irish Bank, the largest financial institution in Ireland by assets but smaller than PaddyPower by market capitalization which is an Irish online gaming company may soon see its fortune turn along with rival Bank of Ireland. Ironically its cheap debt could be what saves the two Irish banks. AIB looks to make $2.57 billion on a heavily discounted buy-back of its subordinated debt. The AIB debt which is selling at 70% to its value due to problems with Irish debt in Europe magnified by its own problems. Due to banking intricacies and showing the faults of Basel III, the Ireland financial institutions will be in worse shape but better shape according to regulators after this purchase.
The Irish luck may be turning, if the Irish banking institutions can buy back their debt at large discount it may be able to obtain adequate capital ratios and survive as viable entities.
This is one criticism of the Basel reforms which are currently being worked out by bankers in determining capital ratios required for banks. By making strict guidelines of capital requirements per banks they may be unintentionally hurting the financial sector. The idea of a high capital ratio is to ensure a bank has enough capital, that it would not collapse if depositors were to withdraw their money. Banks with less cash but higher ratios are able to survive because of the ratios. It is almost as if mathematics has overtaken common sense. We have seen this before during the financial crisis of 2008. Risk was priced in mathematical formulas and did not properly reflect market realities. This may prove to be a contentious issue going forward for bankers.
To see the full AIB report click here.
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