The Asian/Pacific markets closed mostly down. Japan and South Korea dropped 3% or more, Taiwan and Australia more than 2%, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Singapore more than 1%. Europe is currently mixed. Greece is up almost 3%, Norway and Stockholm down around 2%. Futures here in the States point towards a moderate gap up open for the cash market.
The dollar is flat. Oil is flat, copper is up. Gold and silver are up.
Facebook (FB) starts trading today on the Nas. It’s a great American success story that shows upward mobility still exits. Anyone who is smart, works hard and is lucky can make it big in the USA. I’m not buying the stock…mostly because I’m a technical trader who needs at least a couple months of data to make trading/investing decisions. But I think it’ll do just fine. Even if it is overvalued, purely from a supply/demand standpoint, there aren’t that many social media companies to choose from. It has a massive user base. Even if it hasn’t monitized its base as well as it could have, it’s got such a big foot print, that if it figures out revenue stream #2, the stock can take off.
Moving on, I felt some panic in the air yesterday. It’s the first time this month I sensed the bulls throwing in the towel. I could feel the frustration. I could feel the disbelief. Those who held looking for one last bounce to exit positions are flat out furious. But now that some panic has begun, we’re likely close to a tradable bottom. Many breadth indicators I follow are at very low levels – levels that produced bottoms in the past.
Here’s an example of one of those indicators…the 10-day MA of the NYSE AD line. This is the second lowest level since the August meltdown. If you’re short, great. Manage your positions wisely. If you’re not short, in most cases it’s too late. You have no choice but to wait.
The bulls are dead, but soon the sellers will run out of ammo, and we’ll get a bounce. Have a plan, be ready. http://www.leavittbrothers.com/
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