How strongly Wall Street
receives quarterly earnings depends largely on the iPhone.
In a decent quarter, like
fiscal Q2 of 2012, when Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) had managed to sell 35 million
iPhones, the device accounts for almost 60% of the total revenue of the
company. In a bad quarter, like Q3, Apple sold 26 million units, iPhones
accounted for 46% of the total revenue. It is evident that the iPhone will drag
the company and its share costs down with it.
Calculating estimations for
Q4 of 2012, the quarter that had ended on 29th September, is pretty
tricky. For the first 10 weeks, unit sales were miserable by customers holding
out for the latest iPhone they kept reading about. For the last two weeks,
Apple had sold iPhone 5s as fast it could manufacture them.
The 60 estimates that have
surfaced so far from a pool of Apple analysts include 30 professionals and 30
individuals. It was tough to differentiate the consensus among the more
conventional pros from the pleasantly upbeat indies.
The low estimate this
quarter amounting to 21 million was submitted by an individual named Shafiq
Shamji from Braeburn Group. Before he lowered his prediction to 26.5 million on
Monday, Anil Doradia from William Blair had predicted a high estimate of 33
million. Anil said that Apple’s inability to cope up with the mounting demand
is being aggravated by its aggressive international launch schedule. Also the
company is reducing its exposure to Samsung.
Katy Huberty, an analyst at
Morgan Stanley felt that there is a wide range of prospective outcomes for
iPhone results. She has vowed to be more conservative with her estimates, with
25 million.
The average calculated
among both the groups is 26.4. The median is 27 million.
Supply constraints could be
a drag on quarterly earnings of Apple. A number of analysts had this opinion
while trimming their estimates.
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