Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which came out today a
report on Nokia Corporation (ADR)(NYSE:NOK) and the popularity of its new Lumia
smartphone, said that the structural challenges facing the company were
daunting.
The Lumia 920 which has been launched in several
markets has met with good response and in markets like Germany and Australia;
there are reports of it being sold out.
Analysts estimate that Nokia will ship about 5.4
million units of the new Windows-based smartphones in the fourth quarter of
2012, which could go up to 33.2 million in 2013.
This means the Finnish handset maker, which once ruled
the mobile world, will get about 6 percent of the market share of Windows
Phones. The company will be facing competition in this segment from Samsung,
HTC, ZTE and Huawei all of whom are partnering Microsoft.
BoAML said that the reduced scale of operations of
Nokia, lack of ecosystem and vertical integration and the fact that it does not
have much of any differentiating characteristics might be deterrents in its
gaining more popularity.
Google Trends data suggest that the Lumia series of
smartphones is gaining traction in markets such as India, Russia wile in the
United States, Western Europe and China, it is not that high.
BoAML said that it expects Nokia to continue to burn
cash and the net cash position to decrease to €2.7bn at end of Q4 (down from
€3.6bn at end of Q3). BAML projects that Nokia’s phone division will be
unprofitable next year (-2.7 percent operating margin), below consensus
expectations of break-even (+0.3 percent operating margin), as that this will
be enough to offset the structural decline in feature phone revenues. BAML
reiterates it’s underperform rating and sum of parts-derived €1.60 price
target.
Shares of NOK have jumped over 32% so far this week.
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